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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Jun 29 1238 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
29 Jun 2022	096	006
30 Jun 2022	096	006
01 Jul 2022	096	004

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours has been at very low levels. There are five relatively simple active regions on the visible solar disc with NOAA 3040 (beta) being the largest. NOAA 3041 has reached the west limb and is expected to rotate behind it soon. NOAA 3042 (beta) is the second largest active region on the visible disc, but it remains a small and fairly simple bipolar region. Two other regions, NOAA 3043 (alpha) and NOAA 3044 (beta) have been newly numbered in the southeast quadrant, but appear to be decaying. A new sunspot group is emerging in the southeast quadrant. The X-ray flaring activity over the next 24 hours is expected to be at very low to low levels with chances for isolated C-class flaring.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours. A large filament erupted on the central meridian close to the disc center around 22 UTC on June 28th. Any possible impacts of this eruption will be further analysed as more coronagraph data becomes available.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was mostly above the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) remained under the waning influence of a high speed stream. The solar wind velocity has been mostly stable around 500 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was weak with a maximal value of 6 nT and a minimum Bz of -4 nT. The B field has switched orientation from the negative to the positive sector. At the time of writing the forecast the interplanetary field has just increased to almost 10 nT, possibly reflecting the expected glancing blow arrival of the June 26th CME. The solar wind parameters are expected to be slightly elevated over the next 24 hours with the expected glancing blow arrival of the June 26th CME.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet to isolated and locally quiet to active with K Belgium reaching 4. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 hours with chances for isolated active periods.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 041, na základě 18 stanic.

Solární indexy za 28 Jun 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	073
10cm sluneční tok	096
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	009
Odhadovaný Ap	011
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	069 - Na základě 29 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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