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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Jul 16 1237 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
16 Jul 2022	174	009
17 Jul 2022	176	012
18 Jul 2022	173	010

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels over the past 24 hours with several C-class flares and a single M-flare observed. The largest flare observed was an M1.1 flare, peaking at 06:29 UT, originating from NOAA AR 3057. There are currently six numbered active regions on the disk. The flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels with C-class flares expected, M-class flares are probable and there is chance for an X-class flare.

A filament stretching across the central meridian in the northern hemisphere was seen in SDO/AIA 304 to partially erupt from 13:08 UT July 15. An associated partial halo Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) was observed in LASCO C2 to the north-west. The CME was very slow with a speed of around 300 km/s and although predominantly directed to the north-west, a possible impact at Earth may be expected from late on July 19 to July 20.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux began to increase and just crossed the 1000 pfu threshold near the end of the period. It is expected be above this threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels but is expected to increase to moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

The Earth is currently under the influence of a high-speed stream. The solar wind speed was stable around 570 km/s. The total magnetic field ranged between 4 and 9 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind speed is expected to decrease slightly over the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled over the past 24 hours (NOAA Kp and Local K-Dourbes recorded values 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet over the next 24 hours with unsettled intervals possible.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 154, na základě 21 stanic.

Solární indexy za 15 Jul 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	166
10cm sluneční tok	171
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	012
Odhadovaný Ap	010
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	137 - Na základě 32 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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