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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Jul 19 1252 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
19 Jul 2022	152	024
20 Jul 2022	147	016
21 Jul 2022	150	019

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at low levels over the past 24 hours. The largest flare observed was an C3.9 flare, peaking at 18 July 23:54 UT, originating from NOAA AR 3058. The flaring activity is expected to be at low levels with C-class flares expected, while M-class flares are possible.

A CME can be seen in Stereo A on 18 July 17:53 UT. This seems to be associated with activity about that time around NOAA AR 3056 and an associated dimming. Chances of a glancing blow early-mid 23 July cannot be excluded, but the confidence is low.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours. The proton flux is mostly expected to remain at nominal levels for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux crossed the 1000 pfu threshold for the time period 18 June 19:00-23:00UT. It is remain below threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels. It is expected to decrease to nominal levels over the next 24 hours.

The solar wind parameters indicate possible ICME arrival, with a shock registered 18 July 20:33 UT. This could had been an early arrival of the CME associated with a filament eruption on July 15. The total magnetic field reached 16nT while the solar wind speed reached 526 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle varied. The values of the solar wind parameters are expected to remain elevated, as we expect the high speed stream from the two negative polarity coronal holes to impact 21-22 July.

Minor storm conditions were reached July 06:00-09:00UT (NOAA Kp=5), possibly a result of the ICME, date of occurrence 15 July. Unsettled to active conditions can be expected over the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 110, na základě 24 stanic.

Solární indexy za 18 Jul 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	205
10cm sluneční tok	152
AK Chambon La Forêt	024
AK Wingst	010
Odhadovaný Ap	010
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	130 - Na základě 34 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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