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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Aug 13 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
13 Aug 2022	122	009
14 Aug 2022	124	010
15 Aug 2022	122	007

Bulletin

Several C flares occurred in the past 24 hours. Most of them from the newly emerged NOAA active region 3079 in the South as reported yesterday. The strongest flare was a C6.8 flare peaking at 7:31UTC. This bipolar region developed a dominant trailing spot and exhibits mixed polarity field in the intermediate area. The unipolar active regions NOAA 3071 and 3074 were stable while unipolar region NOAA 3078 showed some growth and became bipolar. The bipolar NOAA active region 3077 has decayed just as the newly numbered NOAA active region 3080 which was shortlived. The now bipolar region NOAA 3076 in the north has grown following the new flux emergence reported yesterday. Another bipolar region has recently emerged rapidly in the north east (NOAA active region 3081). All in all, C class flaring is very likely with now also chances for M class flaring.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next days. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained above the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain above or around the threshold in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at moderate levels with a slow decreasing trend.

Declining high speed Solar wind conditions were recorded. Solar wind speed decreased from around 575 to just over 500 km/s while the interplanetary magnetic field strength varied around 5nT. The magnetic field orientation showed mostly a connection to a positive sector (field away from the Sun). Over the next 24 hours Solar wind speed is expected to continue the decreasing trend and slowly return towards slow Solar wind conditions.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (both local K Dourbes and NOAA Kp 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled over the next days.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 126, na základě 19 stanic.

Solární indexy za 12 Aug 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	120
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	///
Odhadovaný Ap	009
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	109 - Na základě 31 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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