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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Aug 29 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
29 Aug 2022	125	017
30 Aug 2022	123	021
31 Aug 2022	121	011

Bulletin

There were four M-class flares in the past 24 hours, from NOAA AR 3088 (beta-gamma magnetic field configuration) which is rotating out of view over the west limb. The strongest was an M8.6 flare, peaking at 11:07 UT. This region, and NOAA AR 3089 (beta-delta magnetic field configuration), can produce more M-class (and even X-class) flares in the next 24 hours.

A CME was seen erupting from NOAA AR 3088 (related to an M6.7 flare), on 28 August at 16:12 UT (as first seen by LASCO/C2). Since the AR was already at the limb, the ICME is not expected to arrive to the Earth but a shock might, on 31 August.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is below the 10 pfu mark. Depending on the activity on NOAA AR 3088, the protons may increase in the coming 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain at nominal levels over the next 24 hours.

A weak shock was seen in the solar wind at 02:56 UT, the magnetic field intensity jumped from 5 to 10 nT and the solar wind speed from 440 to 480 km/s. This shock is most likely driven by an ICME, producing only a glancing blow at the Earth. The CME from 27 August was expected to produce a glancing blow today, but the speed in situ is more indicative of an earlier candidate. The event is still ongoing, more information will be given later. The high speed solar wind coming from the low latitudinal extension of the southern polar coronal hole may arrive to the Earth in 24 hours, although it may pass south of the Earth.

Active conditions were recorded over the past 24 hours by NOAA Kp (up to 4) and unsettled locally (K Dourbes up to 3). Over the next 24 hours, active conditions can be expected, with minor storm levels possible.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 075, na základě 21 stanic.

Solární indexy za 28 Aug 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	252
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	008
Odhadovaný Ap	008
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	090 - Na základě 23 stanic

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