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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Oct 03 1254 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
03 Oct 2022	156	015
04 Oct 2022	159	016
05 Oct 2022	159	012

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at high levels. Catania sunspot group 48 (NOAA AR 3110, beta) on the north-west quadrant of the Sun produced several M-class flares and a X1.0-class flare peaking at 20:25 UTC on October 2, which was associated with a Type II radio burst. The latest flare observed in this sunspot was a M4.2-class and was associated with the coronal dimming indicating a possible coronal mass ejection. Also, several M-class flares were also produced by the very magnetically complex sunspot NOAA AR 3113 (beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity). Solar flaring activity is expected to remain at high levels since both sunspot regions remain very active and continue to grow. M-class flares are expected, and a chance for an X-class flare.

While several dimmings associated with the M-class flares and the X1.0-class flare were observed followed by a coronal mass ejection, no Earth directed components are expected due to their non-geoeffective location on the solar disc.

After the X1.0-class flare peaking at 20:25 UTC the greater than 10 MeV proton flux showed a small increased just above the background level, but remained fully below the minor storm warning threshold. Due to the increased flaring activity, there is a small chance that the greater than 10 MeV proton flux may exceed this threshold over the next 24 hours associated with further high energy flares and eruptions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels over the past 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is expected to be at normal levels in the next 24 hours.

The Earth was under the continued influence of a high-speed stream coming from positive coronal hole (positive polarity), with solar wind values between 400 km/s and 600 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude was elevated around 10 nT, and is currently reaching 13 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -8.8 nT and 7.4 nT. The magnetic field phi angle was mostly in the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun). The solar wind speed is expected to remain enhanced on October 03 due to the ongoing influence of the high- speed stream. Also the partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection associated with the filament eruption that began to lift off around 11:59 UTC October 01 was predicted to impact and slightly disturb the solar wind condition near Earth early October 4.

Geomagnetic conditions were unsettled to active (NOAA Kp 2-4, local K-Dourbes 2-3) with a period for which storm conditions were observed (NOAA Kp 5). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at unsettled conditions with active conditions possible for the next days.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 162, na základě 23 stanic.

Solární indexy za 02 Oct 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	154
AK Chambon La Forêt	028
AK Wingst	016
Odhadovaný Ap	016
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	126 - Na základě 22 stanic

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