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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Oct 07 1239 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
07 Oct 2022	156	016
08 Oct 2022	156	017
09 Oct 2022	156	017

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at quiet levels with low C-class flares (below C3-class) produced by Catania sunspot group 48 (NOAA AR 3110, beta), Catania sunspots group 55 (NOAA AR 3112) and Catania sunspots group 56 (NOAA AR 3116). The solar flaring activity is expected to remain quiet to moderated levels with C-class flare and possible isolated M-class flare.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next days. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and it is expected to be below the threshold in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

Solar wind parameters were slightly elevated due to the influence of the high-speed streams coming from coronal holes (positive polarity). The solar wind speed values were between 450 km/s and 540 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude ranged between 3.4 nT and 7.8 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -6.5 nT and 6.1 nT being mainly negative. The magnetic field phi angle was mostly in the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun). Last October 05, a small equatorial coronal hole (positive magnetic polarity) was facing Earth. The high-speed stream from this corona hole is expected to reach Earth on October 07-08. The solar wind conditions are expected to be enhanced due to the combination of the possible arrival of glancing blow of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection from the filament eruption observed on October 05, and the high-speed streams from the corona hole (positive magnetic polarity).

Geomagnetic conditions were unsettled to active (NOAA Kp 1-4, local K-Dourbes 1-4) due to the prolonged periods of the southward component of the interplanetary magnetic being negative. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at unsettled conditions with possible periods of active conditions for the next days due to the expected solar wind enhancements.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 159, na základě 21 stanic.

Solární indexy za 06 Oct 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	156
AK Chambon La Forêt	032
AK Wingst	020
Odhadovaný Ap	020
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	148 - Na základě 29 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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