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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Oct 19 1247 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
19 Oct 2022	110	006
20 Oct 2022	119	016
21 Oct 2022	105	006

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at low levels, with flare of largest X-ray output being the C1.9-class flare from NOAA active Region (AR) 3124, peak time 18 October 14:13 UTC. ARs present on the disk have mainly been decaying. NOAA AR 3122 has rotated off disk. For the next 24 hours, C-class flares are possible.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections were observed in the last 24 hours. A southern coronal hole with negative polarity will be at the solar meridian on late 20 October. An associated high speed stream can be expected about 23-24 October.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to be about threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at this level in the next 24 hours.

The Solar Wind (SW) parameters showed a gradual return to background levels. The SW speed gradually dropped to 425 km/s over the last 24 hours. The total magnetic field (Bt) remained around 5 nT, while its Bz component ranged between -4 to 5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was directed towards the Sun. The solar wind parameters expected to become enhanced over the next 24 hours, as we are awaiting the arrival of the high speed stream associated with the coronal hole that crossed central meridian on 17 October.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled levels (K Dourbes 3) over the last 24 hours. In the next 24 hours the conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a chance of active conditions.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 045, na základě 18 stanic.

Solární indexy za 18 Oct 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	070
10cm sluneční tok	114
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	008
Odhadovaný Ap	006
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	049 - Na základě 30 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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