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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Nov 07 1254 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
07 Nov 2022	131	015
08 Nov 2022	131	008
09 Nov 2022	131	007

Bulletin

The solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at slightly at higher levels with a single M5.2-class flare. This M5.2-class flare was peaking 00:11 UTC on Nov 07 and produced by the largest bipolar region on the visible solar disk, Catania Sunspot group 89 (NOAA-AR 3141, Beta magnetic configuration). The two other bipolar regions NOAA 3135 (beta) and NOAA 3135 (beta) have remained mostly unchanged and inactive. All other active regions are unipolar with underlying magnetic type alpha-class and have either exhibited signs of decay or remained stable. The flaring activity over the next 24 hours is expected to be mostly at low levels with possible isolated M-class flare produced by Catania Sunspot group 89 (NOAA- AR 3141).

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours. Associate to the M5.2-class flare, an East-directed coronal mass ejection was observed with a Type II Radio Emission. This event is not exacted to impact the solar wind conditions near Earth.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been well above the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain mostly above the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at moderate to high levels and might reach high levels over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) followed a declining trend, recovering from the waning influence of a high-speed stream (HSS): The solar wind velocity was close to 400 km/s; the total interplanetary magnetic field was weak and below the value of 6 nT; and the southward interplanetary magnetic, Bz component, ranged between -3.3 nT and 6 nT. Today, since about 07:00 UTC on Nov 07, the total interplanetary magnetic field rose up to 15 nT. This might be associated with the exacted arrival of the high-speed streams from a small and narrow positive polarity coronal hole. The solar wind velocity is expected to continue to be slightly enhanced in the next days.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet (K-Belgium, Kp-NOAA ranged between 0 and 2). Due to the recent enhanced solar wind condition, and the southward interplanetary magnetic, Bz component, reaching -11 nT, K-Belgium has recorded active conditions (K-Belgium = 4). Periods of active geomagnetic conditions are expected due to the arrival of the high-speed streams from a small and narrow positive polarity coronal hole.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 093, na základě 07 stanic.

Solární indexy za 06 Nov 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	131
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	004
Odhadovaný Ap	002
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	079 - Na základě 16 stanic

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