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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Dec 14 1255 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)

	10cm tok	Ap
14 Dec 2022	154	003
15 Dec 2022	154	004
16 Dec 2022	154	004

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity has strongly increased over the past 24 hours with three M-class flares and several C-class flares reported. The first M2.4-class flare originated from NOAA AR 3165, which is rotating towards the West solar limb. The flare peaked at 07:40UTC on Dec 14. The second M1.1-class flare, which peaked at 08:31UTC originated from NOAA AR 3153. The M1.1-class flare was associated with a Type II Radio Emission indicating a shock wave. This flare is associated with a coronal mass ejection, which is not Earth-directed. The third M1.3-class flare which peaked at 09:27UTC occurred from NOAA AR 3165. Most of the other flaring activity originated from NOAA AR 3165. The C2.5-class flare, peaking at 03:32UTC on Dec 14, originating from NOAA AR 3153 was associated with a Type II and Type IV radio emission, indicating the presence of a coronal shock wave and a coronal mass ejection.The associated slow and narrow coronal mass ejection, which is not Earth-directed. In the coming 24 hours M-class flares are possible and C-class flares are expected. The wide eruption from NOAA 3165, which is presently well- connected to the Earth, could be associated with a particle event in the coming hours.

During the last 24 hours there were no other potentially Earth-directed CMEs detected in the available coronagraph observations.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at the background levels, and the greater than 2 MeV electron flux was under the 1000 pfu threshold during last several days. The 24h electron fluence is at normal level. We expect such conditions to persist in the next 24 hours.

Earth is presently presiding in slow solar wind conditions with a solar wind speed of about 340 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude was around 5nT. We expect slow solar wind conditions for the next 24 hours.

During the last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels. We expect the geomagnetic conditions to remain quiet over the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 154, na základě 11 stanic.

Solární indexy za 13 Dec 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	153
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	004
Odhadovaný Ap	003
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	160 - Na základě 17 stanic

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