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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Dec 18 1232 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
18 Dec 2022	155	006
19 Dec 2022	155	010
20 Dec 2022	155	019

Bulletin

The majority of the solar flaring activity has been at low levels with 9 C-class flares and only one low M-class flare recorded in the past 24 hours. The majority of the solar flaring has been coming from NOAA AR 3169 and NOAA AR 3170, which both rotated onto the visible solar disk at the Eastern solar limb. The strongest flare was an M1.0 flare originating from NOAA AR 3169 which peaked on Dec 17 at 19:53UTC. We expect the solar flaring activity to remain at low levels, with C-class flares expected and a small possibility for M-class flares.

During the last 24 hours there were no potentially Earth-directed coronal mass ejections detected in the available coronagraph observations.

In the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the minor storm threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels over the past 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is expected to be at normal levels in the next 24 hours. We expect the conditions to stay at quiet levels.

The solar wind parameters are still reflecting slow solar wind conditions and we have not observed any sign of a high speed stream arriving, associated with the negative polarity coronal hole in the southern hemisphere, which began to cross the central meridian on Dec 14. During the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed was around 290km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field had a magnitude of about 8nT. Later today, we are still expecting an increase in the solar wind speed leading up to the onset of the high speed stream associated to the previously mentioned coronal hole. However, the impact may be mild. From early Dec 20 onwards, we are expecting the arrival of another high speed stream, associated with the positive polarity, equatorial coronal hole that started to cross the central meridian on Dec 17.

During the last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were quiet. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be unsettled to active in the next days, due to the arrival of the previously mentioned high speed streams.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 129, na základě 07 stanic.

Solární indexy za 17 Dec 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	155
AK Chambon La Forêt	005
AK Wingst	002
Odhadovaný Ap	003
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	134 - Na základě 16 stanic

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