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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Dec 20 1232 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
20 Dec 2022	152	012
21 Dec 2022	152	012
22 Dec 2022	152	007

Bulletin

The solar flaring activity was at low levels. There are many sunspot regions currently on the solar surface visible from Earth and several C-class flares were recorded coming from bipolar sunspot regions (Beta magnetic class: NOAA-AR 3160, 3163, 3167, 3169, 3170, 3171). The larger flare was a C8.1-class from the NOAA-AR 3170 peaking at 08:53 UTC on December 20. The flaring activity over the next 24 hours is expected to remain at low levels, with C-class flares expected and a small possibility for M-class flares.

Several coronal mass ejections flows were observed in the available SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery and automatically detected by the Cactus tool over the past 24 hours. However, no clear Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were identified.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at normal to low levels and is expected to stay at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

The solar wind parameters are slightly enhanced. The solar wind speed remained slow around 350-400 km/s however, the total interplanetary magnetic field was enhanced and reaches values up to 15.3 nT with the southward interplanetary magnetic component, Bz, ranging between -7.1 nT and 13.4 nT. This enhancement of the solar wind parameters could be associated with the negative polarity coronal hole in the southern hemisphere, which began to cross the central meridian on December 14. Later today, we are expecting the arrival of another high-speed stream, associated with the positive polarity, equatorial coronal hole that started to cross the central meridian on December 17.

During the last 24 hours, the geomagnetic conditions were quiet (NOAA- Kp=1-2) with short periods of unsettled condition observed locally in Belgium (K-BEL=3) due to the southward interplanetary magnetic component, Bz, being negative for a relatively longer periods. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be unsettled to active in the next days, due to the arrival of the previously mentioned high-speed streams.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 118, na základě 08 stanic.

Solární indexy za 19 Dec 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	141
10cm sluneční tok	152
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	010
Odhadovaný Ap	010
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	121 - Na základě 06 stanic

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