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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Jan 11 1234 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
11 Jan 2023	193	007
12 Jan 2023	190	008
13 Jan 2023	188	004

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at high levels in the past 24 hours with an X1.0-class flare (start time 22:39 UTC, end time 22:52 UTC, peak time 22:47 UTC on Jan 10th), produced by the newly numbered active region NOAA 3186 (beta-delta). The region has significantly developed over the past 24 hour, producing multiple high C-class and low M-class flares. Further M-class flaring was produced by NOAA 3184 (beta-delta) which doubled in number of sunspots and produced an M5.6-class flare with peak time 01:56 UTC on Jan 11th. NOAA AR 3181 (beta-gamma-delta), which has significantly evolved producing a number of C- and isolated M-class flaring, and NOAA AR 3181 (beta-gamma) has reduced its complexity, but continued to produce C- and M-class flares. NOAA AR 3182 (beta-gamma-delta) is currently crossing the central meridian and is continuously producing C-class flaring. NOAA AR 3185 (beta) has further developed and started to produce isolated C-class flaring. A new active region, NOAA 3187 (alpha), emerged in the north-east quadrant, but remains simple and quiet, as well as NOAA AR 3180 (alpha) and NOAA AR 3183 (alpha). The solar flaring activity over the next 24 hours is expected to be at moderate to high levels with continuous C-class flaring, likely M-class flares and remaining chances for further X-class flaring.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours with possible enhancements subject to flaring activity and related solar eruptions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been below the1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind conditions (ACE and DSCOVR) have been slightly enhanced, perhaps indicating a very mild influence of the expected high speed stream from a negative polarity coronal hole. The solar wind velocity varied in the range of 343 km/s to 436 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field reached 9.16 nT with a minimum Bz of -7.96 nT. The B field was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced for the rest of the day.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected over the next 24 hours with remaining minor chances for isolated active periods.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 170, na základě 07 stanic.

Solární indexy za 10 Jan 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	193
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	007
Odhadovaný Ap	006
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	193 - Na základě 13 stanic

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