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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Jan 21 1232 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
21 Jan 2023	219	015
22 Jan 2023	217	016
23 Jan 2023	217	006

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at low levels in the past 24 hours with several C-class flares being detected. The X-ray flux background remained at the C level. The largest flare was a C7.3 flare, peaking at 22:47 UTC on Jan 20, associated with active region NOAA 3192 (beta-gamma class). NOAA ARs 3190 and 3192 remained the most complex (beta-gamma class) regions and produced several C-class flares in the last 24 hours. The remaining active regions have a simple configuration of the photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta). The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours with likely isolated M-class flares and a chance for X-class flares

A filament eruption in the southwestern quadrant was observed on Jan 20 around 12:30UTC. The associated CME appears in SoHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph data from 12:24UTC onwards is directed to the southwest. Another filament eruption from NOAA AR 3190 occurred shortly after it at around 13:47UTC, related to a C5.3 class flare. The associated faint CME, that appears in SoHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph data from 14:48UTC onwards, is directed to the south. The bulk of this eruptions is estimated to miss Earth, but there is a chance for a glancing blow on Jan 23 around 18:00UTC. During the last 24 hours there were no other potentially Earth-directed CMEs detected in the available coronagraph observations.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels over the past 24 hours but could become enhanced over the next 24 hours with chances of reaching minor radiation storm levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind conditions were slightly disturbed. The solar wind speed followed an increasing trend, rising from 390 km/s to 530 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field was between 4 nT to 9 nT. The Bz ranged between -8 to 7 nT. A positive polarity equatorial coronal hole has started to transit the central meridian on Jan 21 and may influence solar wind conditions starting from Jan 24. The solar wind speed is expected to continue to be elevated in the next days due to influence of HSS from positive polarity coronal hole.

During the last 24 hours, the geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (K-Bel=2-3 NOAA-Kp=2-3) with a short period of active condition (NOAA-Kp=4). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled in the next days, with possible isolated active periods during next hours due to influence of the HSS.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 197, na základě 10 stanic.

Solární indexy za 20 Jan 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	268
10cm sluneční tok	218
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	007
Odhadovaný Ap	006
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	216 - Na základě 17 stanic

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