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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Jan 23 1303 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
23 Jan 2023	200	007
24 Jan 2023	198	007
25 Jan 2023	196	017

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was moderate and frequent, with two M1 and numerous C-class flares detected during the past 24 hours. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3190 (magnetic type Beta-Gamma-Delta, Catania group 48) emitted the first M1 flare yesterday at 12:26 UT, while NOAA AR 3194 (magnetic type Beta-Gamma-Delta, Catania group 46) produced the second M1 yesterday at 17:02 UT. NOAA AR 3194 is likely to produce isolated M-class events and there is a chance for NOAA AR 3190 to reach the same level of flare activity in the next 24 hours. NOAA AR 3191 (magnetic type Beta, Catania group 47), 3192 (magnetic type Beta-Gamma, Catania group 49), 3199 (magnetic type Beta, Catania group 55), and 3200 (magnetic type Beta) have complex magnetic configurations, produced numerous C-class flares and are expected to remain at the C-class activity level in the next 24 hours.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections were observed in the last 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions remained slightly disturbed. The SW speed fluctuated between 420 to 570 km/s, while the total magnetic field (Bt) varied between 5 and 12 nT, and its North-South (Bz) component ranged between -8 and 12 nT in the last 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was most of the time directed away from the Sun over the last 24 hours. The current SW conditions may have been the result of a glancing blow that arrived today at 03:00 UT. As such the SW conditions are expected to continue with the same pattern in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet both globally and locally (NOAA Kp 1-3 and K Belgium 0-3) over the last 24 hours. The are expected to remain at the same level, and perhaps increase to moderate levels for a short period of time, for the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 169, na základě 02 stanic.

Solární indexy za 22 Jan 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	199
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	010
Odhadovaný Ap	010
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	164 - Na základě 10 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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