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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Jan 29 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
29 Jan 2023	138	008
30 Jan 2023	143	007
31 Jan 2023	145	007

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at low levels over the past 24 hours. The strongest flare was a C3.4 flare from NOAA active region 3200 peaking at 12:01UTC. Further low C class flares originated from NOAA active region 3204 as well as from the southeast limb and from an unnumbered area in the northeastern quadrant. NOAA active regions 3200 and 3203 have meanwhile decayed into plage while NOAA active region 2304 as well as 2305, both simple bipolar regions, showed spreading of the footpoints and growth in the leading spot. The unipolar regions 3198 and 3202 appeared stable. Some new spot formation is seen near the end of the period in the 3199 plage area. Further C class flaring is expected.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

An equatorial coronal hole of negative polarity has crossed the central meridian and is expected to influence solar wind conditions starting February 1.

Solar wind parameters showed continued but decreasing high speed solar wind conditions. Solar wind speed is still hovering around the 500km/s mark. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field is around 5nT with a variable north-south orientation. The orientation of the magnetic field showed connection to a positive sector (field away from the Sun) until this morning. High speed solar wind conditions should continue to decrease aver the next days.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (both NOAA Kp and local K Belgium 0-3). Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next days with initially a possibility of periods of unsettled conditions.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 092, na základě 05 stanic.

Solární indexy za 28 Jan 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	138
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	012
Odhadovaný Ap	012
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	079 - Na základě 13 stanic

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