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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Feb 14 1236 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
14 Feb 2023	187	008
15 Feb 2023	184	008
16 Feb 2023	181	006

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was an M1.8 flare, peaking at 02:03 UT February 14, and was associated with NOAA AR 3226, which also produced an M1.4 flare at 15:56 UT February 13. This region along continued to exhibit sunspot growth. NOAA Region 3213 also produced a number of high level C-class flares and is now about to rotate over the west limb. NOAA AR 3217, 3214, 3220 and 3216 were mostly stable. The remaining regions on the solar disk are all relatively small and have not produced significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours with M-class flares likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. There is a small chance of a proton event exceeding the 10pfu threshold, due to the number of complex regions on disk. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold briefly and is expected to exceed this threshold again in the next days. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

The solar wind conditions (ACE and DSCOVR) at the start of the period until 23:30 UT February 14, showed a slight increase in the total magnetic field with values around 5nT and a slight increase in the solar wind speeds from 340 to 400 km/s. Bz had a minimum value of -2 nT. However, after this time there is no data available from ACE and DSCOVR. The solar wind conditions are expected reflect a slow solar wind regime over the next days, with a chance for a glancing blow from one of the multiple CMEs observed on February 11, which could influence the solar wind conditions from February 14.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the next days, with a chance of active conditions related to the possible glancing blow of the CMEs from February 11.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 185, na základě 15 stanic.

Solární indexy za 13 Feb 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	235
10cm sluneční tok	189
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	004
Odhadovaný Ap	005
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	196 - Na základě 28 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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