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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Mar 07 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
07 Mar 2023	187	014
08 Mar 2023	185	013
09 Mar 2023	180	019

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was moderate during the last 24 hours with one M1 flare detected yesterday at 17:50 UT from the trailing part of NOAA Active Region (AR) 3242 (magnetic type Beta, Catania group 5). Several C-class flares were detected, the majority of them from NOAA AR 3243 (magnetic type Beta, Catania group 6). For the next 24 hours, NOAA AR 3242 is expected to dropped to a C-class level activity, although the possibility of an isolated M-class flare from the same region cannot be ruled out. NOAA AR 3242 is not expected to produce much more flaring activity detectable from Earth as it turns away from Earth's view. NOAA AR 3245 (magnetic type Beta-Gamma, Catania group 10) is expected to increase its activity and possible produce M-class flares in the coming 24 hours.

A halo Coronal Cass Ejection (CME) was automatically detected by CACTUS as launched yesterday 10:36 UT. However, close inspection revealed that it is a partial halo CME with a speed of 840 km/s and only a glancing blow might reach Earth. Additionally, a CME with a faint asymmetric full halo, was also launched yesterday at 03:00 UT. This earlier CME has a very similar speed to the one automatically detected and is expected to produce a glancing blow on Earth's environment. As the two CME have almost identical speeds and were launched with a difference of a few hours, their glancing blows are expected to arrive together in the second half of 8 Mar or early on 9 Mar.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux fluctuated around the 1000 pfu alert threshold level and is expected to continue with the same pattern during the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remind at moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions remain under the influence of the fast solar wind stream associated to the equatorial coronal hole of negative polarity. The SW speed ranged between 490 km/s and 670 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field (Btot) had values between 2 nT and 6 nT, and its North-South component (Bz) fluctuated between -5 nT and 5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly directed towards the Sun over the last 24 hours. The solar wind conditions near Earth are expected to remain at the same level for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions were moderate globally (NOAA Kp less than 4) and locally reached active levels (K Doubres 4) around midnight. They are expected to remain at a moderate both globally and locally in the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 179, na základě 05 stanic.

Solární indexy za 06 Mar 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	228
10cm sluneční tok	188
AK Chambon La Forêt	025
AK Wingst	018
Odhadovaný Ap	019
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	191 - Na základě 19 stanic

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