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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Mar 14 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
14 Mar 2023	142	017
15 Mar 2023	140	024
16 Mar 2023	138	021

Bulletin

The solar flaring activity remained at low level in the past 24 hours with several C-class flares being detected. The largest flare was a C3.0 flare, peaking at 06:05 UTC on March 14, associated with active region NOAA 3250 (beta class). As there are no complex active regions observed on the visible side of the solar disk, solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels, with C-class flares likely and a chance for M-class flares.

A filament eruption in the southeastern quadrant was observed on March 12 around 17:45UTC. The associated CME appears in SoHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph data from 19:00UTC onwards. The CME is directed to the south and the bulk of the CME is not expected to be Earth directed. However, a glancing blow of the shock may impact Earth from late on March 15. Another filament eruption occurred in the northern hemisphere near disc center at around 09:50UTC on March 13. The associated CME, that appears in SoHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph data from 10:48UTC onwards, is directed to the north-west. The bulk of this eruptions is estimated to miss Earth, but there is a chance for a glancing blow late on March 15. During the last 24 hours there were no other potentially Earth-directed CMEs detected in the available coronagraph observations.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux slowly returned below the 10 pfu threshold at around 23:30 UTC on March 13 and has crossed the 10pfu event threshold around 11:50UTC on March 14. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain slightly enhanced over the next days with chances of reaching minor radiation storm levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to be at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed has started to increase slowly since today, March 14, 03:30UTC from values about 320 km/s to 430 km/s.The interplanetary magnetic field was enhanced reaching a magnitude of 15nT at around 04:30UTC on March 14. The north-south component of the magnetic field was variable, ranging between -11 to 13 nT. The orientation of the magnetic field showed a switch from the the negative field towards the Sun) to positive sector (field away from the Sun). The solar wind speed is expected to continue to be elevated in the next days due to influence of HSS from positive polarity equatorial coronal hole and possible glancing blow from two CMEs from late on March 15.

During the last 24 hours, the geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (K-Bel=1-3 NOAA-Kp=1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to active in the next days, with possible isolated minor storm periods during next days due to influence of the HSS and possible glancing blow from the CMEs.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 110, na základě 08 stanic.

Solární indexy za 13 Mar 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	101
10cm sluneční tok	143
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	003
Odhadovaný Ap	002
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	101 - Na základě 16 stanic

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