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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Mar 25 1248 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
25 Mar 2023	158	015
26 Mar 2023	158	016
27 Mar 2023	158	006

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels with occasional low C-class flaring mostly from NOAA AR 3256 (beta-gamma) and NOAA AR 3260 (beta). The visible solar disc currently shows eight active regions. NOAA AR 3256 remains the largest and is currently the most complex region, which has significantly increased its number of trailing spots. A new active region NOAA 3263 (beta) has been numbered near NOAA 3260 (beta) and another region rotated from the north-west limb and is now numbered NOAA 3264 (alpha). NOAA AR 3258 (beta) exhibited some minor growth and the remaining regions, NOAA AR 3257 (alpha) and AR 3262 (alpha), appear to be mostly stable. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been below the1000 pfu threshold. It is expected to register some enhancements over the next 24 hours with the ongoing high speed stream, but probably remaining under event threshold. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) registered the exit of the previously ongoing ICME and the expected transition into high speed stream (HSS) form the extension of the southern negative polarity coronal hole. The solar wind velocity accordingly increased to elevated levels, ranging from 395 to 577 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field (B) decreased to a maximum value of 11 nT with a minimum Bz of -8.3 nT. The B field switched to the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) as expected with the HSS arrival. The solar wind parameters over the next 24 hours are expected to remain enhanced under the influence of the ongoing HSS arrival.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were mostly quiet to active with a single minor storm registered globally with NOAA Kp reaching 5- during the interval 18-21 UTC on March 24th. Locally only quiet to active conditions were observed over Belgium. Predominantly quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with possible isolated minor storms and remaining small chances for an isolated moderate storm.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 144, na základě 09 stanic.

Solární indexy za 24 Mar 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	158
AK Chambon La Forêt	030
AK Wingst	054
Odhadovaný Ap	066
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	147 - Na základě 22 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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