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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Mar 30 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
30 Mar 2023	145	019
31 Mar 2023	143	021
01 Apr 2023	143	012

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours solar flaring activity has been at low to moderate levels with 3 M-class flares and 9 C-class flares reported. All M- class and a majority of the C-class flaring activity originated from Catania group 24 (NOAA AR 3256 with beta-gamma configuration of the photospheric magnetic field), which is located near the South-West solar limb. Apart from Catania group 24, other flares originated from Catania group 33 (NOAA AR 3263), which is located near the North-West solar limb. The highest flare reported was a GOES M5.4 class flare with peak time at 07:37 UT on March 30 and was produced by Catania group 24. The flare was associated with a type II radio burst indicating presence of the coronal shock wave and the associated CME has been observed by LASCO C2. Due to its source location and width the CME is not expected to impact Earth. In the next 24 hours, we expect solar flaring activity to be at mostly low levels with C-class flares expected and with a chance for an isolated M-class flare.

During the last 24 hours there were no potentially Earth-directed coronal mass ejections detected in the available coronagraph observations.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was above the 1000 pfu threshold for the past 24 hours until about 03:10 UT when it declined rapidly and it has since stayed below the threshold. We expect it to stay below the threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed has started to slowly increase from values of about 370 km/s to about 480 km/s. This increase is related to the arrival of the high speed stream associated with the negative polarity, equatorial coronal hole, that fully crossed the central meridian yesterday. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field was about 7-8 nT during the last 24 hours. Since about 00:00 UT on March 30 the Bz-component of the interplanetary magnetic field has been predominantly southward. The solar wind conditions near Earth are expected to remain elevated for the next 2-3 days, with a further increase of the solar wind speed.

During the last 24 hours, the geomagnetic conditions were quiet with the K and Kp values between 1-3 as reported by the local station at Dourbes and NOAA, respectively. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to increase to unsettled and possibly active conditions over the next 24 hours due to the ongoing arrival of a high speed stream.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 123, na základě 10 stanic.

Solární indexy za 29 Mar 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	176
10cm sluneční tok	148
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	006
Odhadovaný Ap	005
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	157 - Na základě 17 stanic

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