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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 May 03 1253 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
03 May 2023	157	002
04 May 2023	157	001
05 May 2023	157	001

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels over the past 24 hours with several M-class flare. While NOAA Active Region 3288 located close to the west limb decayed and produced only few C-class flare, the NOAA Active Region 3293 has been growing and has produced all the recent M-class flares. The larger flare was an M7.1 peaking today at 10:45 UTC. The flaring activity is expected to remain moderate with possible M-class flare and a small chance of X-class flare.

Few coronal mass ejections (CME) and flows were observed in the available SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery and automatically detected by the Cactus tool over the past 24 hours. However, no clear Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were identified.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at the background levels over the past 24 hours. The proton flux is expected to remain at the background levels over the next day, with a very small chance that a particle event occurs in association with an X-class flare. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was above the 1000 pfu threshold due to the enhanced solar wind conditions and is expected to remain at that level over the next day. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remind at moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

The influence of the solar wind streams associated to the negative polarity coronal hole has decreased to return to a slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed decreased from 530 km/s to 440 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic showed the values below 6.0 nT, and the southward interplanetary magnetic component, Bz, fluctuated between -3.1 nT and 4.7 nT. The solar wind conditions near Earth is expected to remain within the slow solar wind regime for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet with some very short periods of unsettle conditions observed by the local stations (NOAA-Kp: 0 to 2, and K-BEL: 0 to 3). For the next 24 hours,the geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet with possible short periods of unsettle conditions.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 120, na základě 17 stanic.

Solární indexy za 02 May 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	157
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	009
Odhadovaný Ap	010
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	119 - Na základě 27 stanic

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