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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 May 13 1237 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
13 May 2023	145	013
14 May 2023	140	011
15 May 2023	137	008

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at low levels over the past 24 hours. The largest flare of the period was a long duration C9.1 flare, peaking at 00:45 UTC May 13, associated with NOAA AR 3296 which is now approaching the west limb. The new region which emerged yesterday in the western eastern hemisphere has been numbered as NOAA AR 3305. This region produced low level C-class flaring, as did NOAA AR3302, 3304 and 3293. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely and M-class flares possible.

The filament eruption reported yesterday, observed in the south west quadrant, first seen in SDO/AIA 304 at 04:44 UTC is not expected to impact Earth. No new Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10pfu threshold. It is expected that the proton flux will be below this threshold for the next days. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold for the next day. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to be at nominal levels over the next 24 hours.

The solar wind conditions (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected ongoing waning ICME influences. The total interplanetary magnetic field strength increased at the start of the period, with a maximum value of 13.7 nT, before gradually decreasing and stabilizing at values around 5 nT. The solar wind speed increased slightly to 590 km/s before gradually decreasing to values around 440 km/s. Bz had a minimum value of -7 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field switched to the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) for the first half of the period before returning predominantly to the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind speed and magnetic field tare expected to continue to gradually decrease on May 13. There is a low probability for further minor enhancements from late on May 14, due to the CME associated with the M2.1 flare observed on May 11, which may have a glancing blow at Earth.

The geomagnetic conditions reached minor storm conditions (NOAA KP = 5 and K Bel =5). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the rest of May 13, active conditions may be possible from late on May 14 if associated to a low probability CME arrival.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 133, na základě 16 stanic.

Solární indexy za 12 May 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	149
AK Chambon La Forêt	026
AK Wingst	020
Odhadovaný Ap	020
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	135 - Na základě 22 stanic

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