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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 May 15 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
15 May 2023	138	011
16 May 2023	140	013
17 May 2023	140	008

Bulletin

The solar flaring activity was at low level with several C-class flares being detected in the last 24 hours. The largest flare was a C3.4 flare, peaking at 00:51 UTC on May 15, associated with the NOAA AR 3306 (beta class), that emerged yesterday in the southern western hemisphere (S19W34). This region produced the majority of the flaring activity. Low flaring activity was also produced by NOAA AR 3305 (beta class), by NOAA AR 3293, that has rotated over the west solar limb and by ARs behind the east limb (S35E88), that are currently rotating onto the disk. The remaining regions on the solar disk were inactive. As there are no complex active regions observed on the visible side of the solar disk, solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels, with C-class flares likely and a chance for M-class flares.

During the last 24 hours there were no potentially Earth-directed CMEs detected in the available coronagraph observations.

In the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so.The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold for the next day.The 24h electron fluence was at normal level. The electron fluence is expected to be at normal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed showed a decreasing trend over the past 24 hours, decreasing from values near 530 km/s to around 470 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field was around 6 nT. The orientation of the magnetic field was predominantly in the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun). The southward interplanetary magnetic, Bz component, ranged between -4 nT and 4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue to gradually decrease over the next 24 hours with a low probability for further minor enhancements, due to a small chance for glancing blow arrivals related to CMEs on May 11-12.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 hours with a small chance for active periods and isolated minor storm due low probability of minor glancing blows.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 103, na základě 13 stanic.

Solární indexy za 14 May 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	140
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	012
Odhadovaný Ap	010
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	131 - Na základě 17 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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