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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Jun 10 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
10 Jun 2023	164	010
11 Jun 2023	162	008
12 Jun 2023	160	008

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

The solar flaring activity was at moderate levels, with one M-class flare and several C-class flares being detected in the last 24 hours. The largest flare was a M2.5 flare, peaking at 17:11 UTC on June 09, associated with NOAA AR 3331 (beta class). NOAA AR 3327 (beta-gamma) is the most complex active region on the disk but produced only C-class flares. Isolated C-class flaring was also produced by NOAA AR 3321 (alpha class) and by NOAA AR 3323 (beta class). Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with a small chance for isolated X-class flare.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

In the past 24 hours, several coronal mass ejections (CME) and flows were observed in the available SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery and automatically detected by the Cactus tool over. In particular, a CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 at around 17:24 UTC on June 09, likely related to the M2.5 flare from NOAA AR 3331. The CME is directed to the south-east and the bulk of the CME is not expected to be Earth directed. However, a glancing blow at Earth may be possible. Full analysis is still ongoing, and more details will be provided later. During the last 24 hours there were no other potentially Earth-directed CMEs detected in the available coronagraph observations.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind speed has remained in the slow solar wind regime with values between 280 km/s and 320 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude was below 6 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -5 nT and 5 nT. Slow solar wind conditions are expected to prevail during the next days, with a probability of a weak enhancement on June 10-11, if solar wind from a coronal hole in the northern hemisphere arrives to the Earth. However, since the coronal hole is located at high latitudes, the corresponding high speed stream may miss the Earth.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected, with chances of active and minor storm levels on June 10-11 if the high speed stream from the positive polarity coronal hole in the northern hemisphere arrives.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold for the next days.The 24h electron fluence was at normal level. The electron fluence is expected to be at normal levels in the next days.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 142, na základě 17 stanic.

Solární indexy za 09 Jun 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	186
10cm sluneční tok	164
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	004
Odhadovaný Ap	004
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	164 - Na základě 28 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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