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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Jun 13 1233 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
13 Jun 2023	145	005
14 Jun 2023	148	019
15 Jun 2023	150	011

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

The solar flaring activity was at low levels. The largest flare was a C5.1 flare, peaking at 23:27 UTC on June 13, associated with NOAA AR 3327. NOAA AR 3327 and NOAA AR 3231 are the most complex regions on the disk. The other regions on the disk are magnetically simple and produced only low-level C-class flares. A number of low-level C -class flares were also observed beyond the east solar limb from an active region expected to rotate onto the disk in the coming days. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely and M-class flares possible.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

In the last 24 hours there were no Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) detected in the available coronagraph observations. A large filament eruption in the north west quadrant was observed but is not expected to be impact Earth.

Koronální díra

A small negative polarity equatorial coronal hole is currently transiting the central meridian.

Solární bouře

The solar wind conditions continued to reflect the ongoing influence of a weak high-speed stream (HSS). The solar wind speed ranged between 416 to 492 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated around 7nT with a minimum Bz of -5 nT. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun). The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated for the next day with the ongoing HSS influence and a there is a low probability for further minor enhancements from late on June 13, due to the possible arrival of the CME from June 09, which was predicted to have a glancing blow at Earth. The high speed stream associated with the coronal hole currently facing Earth is also then expected to arrive on June 16.

Geomagnetismus

During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels (NOAA KP 1-3 and K-Bel 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on June 13, increasing to active levels with a chance for isolated minor storm periods from late on June 13 and June 14, due to the combination of the current high-speed stream influence and a possible glancing blow of the ICME. Minor storm conditions may also be possible from June 16 in response to another high speed stream.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to gradually increase but remain below this threshold for the next day. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels. The electron fluence is expected to be at normal levels in the next days.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 085, na základě 18 stanic.

Solární indexy za 12 Jun 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	153
10cm sluneční tok	146
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	008
Odhadovaný Ap	008
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	118 - Na základě 27 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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