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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Jul 08 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
08 Jul 2023	160	015
09 Jul 2023	158	018
10 Jul 2023	156	008

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

The solar flaring activity was at low levels, with several C-class flares being detected in the last 24 hours. The largest flare was an C4.2 flare, peaking at 01:44 on July 08, associated with NOAA AR 3361 (beta-gamma class). This region is currently the most complex active region on the disk and was the main driver of the flaring activity observed over the past 24 hours. Low level C-class flaring was also produced by NOAA AR 3358 (beta class), NOAA AR 3359 (beta class), NOAA AR 3360 (alpha class), and by NOAA AR 3366 (beta class). Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely and M-class flares possible.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

Coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 at around 20:12 UTC on July 06, that is likely related to a small filament eruption in the northeastern quadrant (N27E47). The CME is directed to the north-east and is not expected to arrive to Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were slightly elevated. The solar wind speed showed a gradually decreasing trend, decreasing from 480 km/s to values around 400 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude ranged between 5 and 7 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -6 nT and 5 nT. Solar wind parameters are expected to be slightly elevated over the next 24 hours due to the positive polarity CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetismus

During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to active levels globally (NOAA KP 1-4). Locally only quiet to unsettled conditions were observed over Belgium (K-Bel=2-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected at quiet to active levels during next days, due to HSS influence.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton was at the nominal levels in the past 24 hours. The proton flux is expected to remain below 10 pfu threshold over the next day, with a small chance that a particle event occurs in association with an X-class flare or a coronal mass ejection.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected to remain below the threshold for the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels and it is expected to remain at moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 166, na základě 17 stanic.

Solární indexy za 07 Jul 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	171
10cm sluneční tok	161
AK Chambon La Forêt	027
AK Wingst	020
Odhadovaný Ap	021
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	151 - Na základě 29 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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