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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Jul 31 1314 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
31 Jul 2023	170	007
01 Aug 2023	168	028
02 Aug 2023	166	023

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

The solar flaring activity was moderate during the last 24 hours, with one M1 flare produced by NOAA Active Region (AR) 3390 (magnetic type Beta) which peaked at 08:42 UTC today. Several C-class flares ranging from C1 to C6 were also produced in the last 24 hours: the brightest C6 by NOAA AR 3390 (magnetic type Beta). For the next 24 hours we are expecting few C-class flares and M-class flare from NOAA AR 3390. There are very likely a small chance of an X-flare.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours.

Koronální díra

A small positive polarity coronal hole has crossed central meridian, and it is expected to have an impact on Earth environment on 3 Aug.

Solární bouře

Earth is presently inside the slow solar wind with velocity ranging from about 400 to 500 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field ranging from 2 nT to 6 nT. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -5 and 4 nT. We expect to see increase in the solar wind velocity once the expected CMEs arrive at Earth.

Geomagnetismus

During the last 24 hours, the geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp and K BEL 1 to 3) and we expect to see active condition or minor storm conditions when the expected CMEs arrive at Earth.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux dropped below the 10 pfu threshold level yesterday at 16:30 UTC. It is expected to stay below the threshold level for the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours, and it is expected to remain below the threshold level in the coming 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 180, na základě 14 stanic.

Solární indexy za 30 Jul 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	174
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	012
Odhadovaný Ap	011
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	182 - Na základě 33 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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