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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Aug 02 1254 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
02 Aug 2023	175	016
03 Aug 2023	174	007
04 Aug 2023	174	007

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

The solar flaring activity was moderate during the last 24 hours, with four M-class flares, all produced by NOAA Active Region (AR) 3380. The strongest reported flare was two GOES M1.4 flares which peaked at 14:09 UTC today. During the flare, the source region (AR 3380) of the flare had beta-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. Several C-class flares ranging from C3 to C9 were also produced in the last 24 hours: the brightest C9-class flare was produced NOAA Active Region (AR) 3380. For the next 24 hours, we are expecting several C-class flares and one or more M-class flare mainly from NOAA AR 3380. There are very likely a small chance of an X-flare.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

Type IV solar radio burst occurred on Aug 02 around 08:00 UTC. This radio burst was associated with the M-class flare from NOAA-AR 3380, located near to the west limb. This has been associate with a coronal mass ejection potentially with an Earth directed component. Future analysis is ongoing to estimated the speed and potentially the arrival time to Earth as well as the impact. No other Earth directed component of Coronal mass ejection (CME) has been identified in the available coronograph imagery.

Koronální díra

An equatorial (negative polarity) coronal hole has reached the central meridian on Aug 01. The solar wind from this coronal hole is expected to enhance the solar wind environment near Earth on 3 and 4 Aug.

Solární bouře

Earth is presently within the slow solar wind regime, ranging from 370 km/s to 430 km/s. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -8 and 10 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranging from 3 nT to 12 nT. This is a sign of the expected coronal mass ejection (CME) which was observed on 29 Jul. The solar wind speed may increase if any remnants from those CME arrive at Earth in the coming 24 hours. Solar wind enhancements may occur tomorrow due to the fast solar wind from the coronal which crossed the central meridian on Aug 01.

Geomagnetismus

During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled. NOAA reported Kp 1 to 3 and K BEL reported 4 for a shorter intervals. This is a sign of the expected coronal mass ejection (CME) which was observed on 29 Jul. The geomagnetic condition may increase to unsettled or active conditions if any remnants from those CME arrive at Earth in the coming 24 hours.

Úrovně protonového toku

The 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to stay below the threshold level for the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, reached above the threshold level at 14:00 and dropped below the 17:40 UTC in the last 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence continues to be at normal level. It is that this parameter to remain below the threshold level in the coming 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 166, na základě 15 stanic.

Solární indexy za 01 Aug 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	219
10cm sluneční tok	175
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	012
Odhadovaný Ap	012
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	185 - Na základě 19 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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