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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Aug 07 1255 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
07 Aug 2023	174	010
08 Aug 2023	174	014
09 Aug 2023	174	010

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3386 (Catania sunspot group 01) has been most active, producing M-class flares, including an M5.5 class flare, which peaked at 18:40 UTC on August 06. The second most active region was NOAA Active Region (AR) 3387 (Catania sunspot group 07) with several C-class flares. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3386 (Catania sunspot group 01) is close to the west limb and is about to rotate over, however flaring activity may still be observed from Earth. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate to high over the next 24 hours with a high probability of C-class flares and a lower probability of M-class.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections have been detected in the available coronagraph images / coronagraph imagery. A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was detected by the Cactus tool in SOHO/LASCO-C2 images (with an angular width of about 226 degree). This CME is associated with the M5.5 class flare, which peaked at 18:40 UTC on August 06 from NOAA Active Region (AR) 3386 (Catania sunspot group 01). Due to the source location, which is close the the west limb, no Earth-directed component of this CME is expected.

Solární bouře

The solar wind conditions were enhanced over the past 24 hours. While the wind speed remains below 500 km/s, the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated and reached 13 nT today around 11:50 UTC today on August 07. The north-south component reached down to -6.8 nT at about the same time. The phi angle remains positive over the past 24 hours. The coronal mass ejection from August 05 at 07:12 UTC is heading Earth and may disturb the solar wind conditions tomorrow around 12:00 UTC (+/- 12 hours). The second coronal mass ejection from August 05 at 22:25 UTC is not expected to disturb the solar wind conditions.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were globally quiet with some unsettled periods locally (NOAA Kp 1-3, K Belgium 1-3) over the past 24 hours. Due to the minor entrenchment of the solar wind conditions, unsettle is expected today. Tomorrow unsettled to active condition is expected due to the arrival of the coronal mass ejection from August 05 at 07:12 UTC.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was returning to background levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and is expected to remain at this level during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 123, na základě 18 stanic.

Solární indexy za 06 Aug 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	174
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	003
Odhadovaný Ap	002
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	115 - Na základě 17 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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