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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Aug 15 1234 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
15 Aug 2023	154	006
16 Aug 2023	155	018
17 Aug 2023	156	012

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

The solar flaring activity was at low levels. The largest flare was a long duration C8.9 flare peaking at 21:10 UTC on August 15, associated with the region that just rotated over the east solar limb, which was numbered NOAA AR3405. This region was the most active, also producing several other low-level C-class flares. NOAA AR3395, near the west limb, was also active producing a C4.1 flare that peaked at 06:57 UTC. This region is expected to rotate off the disk over the next day. Two new, so far unnumbered, regions have begun to emerge in the southern hemisphere (S22W11 and S22E32) but have so far been quiet. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely and a low chance for isolated M-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

The small filament eruption from August 13 has been analysed and is not expected to impact Earth. There were no other Earth- directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) detected in the available coronagraph observations.

Solární bouře

The solar wind conditions reflected a slow solar wind regime. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 2 and 5 nT. Bz had a minimum value of -4nT. The solar wind speed decreased from 370 km/s to around 300 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the negative sector (field directed towards from the Sun). On August 15 the interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind speed are expected continue to reflect a slow solar wind regime. A slight enhancement in the solar wind speed could be expected from August 16 in response to the solar wind associated with the positive coronal hole, which began to cross the central meridian on August 12.

Geomagnetismus

During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels (NOAA KP 1-2, K-Bel 0-2). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet levels on August 15. Unsettled to active conditions may be possible from August 16 due to the solar wind associated to the positive polarity coronal hole.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux oscillated around the 1000 pfu threshold, crossing this threshold for a short period. It is expected to decrease and remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24 hour electron fluence was at nominal to moderate levels. The electron fluence is expected to be at nominal levels for the next days.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 119, na základě 19 stanic.

Solární indexy za 14 Aug 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	154
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	006
Odhadovaný Ap	005
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	116 - Na základě 27 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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