Prohlížíte si archiv sobota 23. září 2023

Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Sep 23 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
23 Sep 2023	176	013
24 Sep 2023	176	023
25 Sep 2023	176	019

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

There are twelve active regions visible on the disk. There were three M-class flares in the last 24 hours, the strongest one was an M1.9 from NOAA AR 3435 (beta magnetic field configuration), peaking at 23:00 UTC on 22 September. The other two M_class flares were produced by the new NOAA ARs 3443 (beta-gamma magnetic field configuration). All the other regions have simpler alpha or beta magnetic field configuration. More M-class flares can be expected in the next 24 hours, X-class flares are possible but less likely.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A wide CME with angular width around 90 degrees was first seen by LASCO-C2 at 02:24 UTC on 22 September. The CME was related to the M1.2 flare from NOAA AR 3435. The CME speed was estimated to be around 730 km/s, with the bulk of the material directed to the NE. Since the source is located close to disk center, an impact at Earth can be expected on 24 September(this ICME will probably interact with the one from 21 September on its way to the Earth).

Koronální díra

There are two small negative coronal holes that crossed the central meridian on 20 September, one at the equator and one in the northern hemisphere.

Solární bouře

In the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed at the Earth has been around 400 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field around 5 nT. Similar slow solar wind conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours. Nevertheless, the CME from 20 September can arrive to the Earth and change the solar wind conditions. Furthermore, we may observe the arrival of a (mild) high speed stream from the two coronal holes that traversed the central meridian on 20 September.

Geomagnetismus

During the last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to unsettled, both globally and locally (NOAA KP 3, K_Bel 3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to reach minor to moderate storm levels if the expected CMEs and high speed streams arrive.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was above the 1000 pfu, as measured by GOES 16. It has gone down in the last hours, but it may increase over the threshold again in the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was at moderate levels, it is expected to stay at those levels for the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 214, na základě 13 stanic.

Solární indexy za 22 Sep 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	239
10cm sluneční tok	176
AK Chambon La Forêt	021
AK Wingst	010
Odhadovaný Ap	011
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	221 - Na základě 16 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

Všechny časy v UTC

<< Přejít na stránku s denním přehledem