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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Oct 21 1241 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
21 Oct 2023	126	026
22 Oct 2023	124	021
23 Oct 2023	124	019

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

The solar flaring activity was at low levels. Two new regions emerged over the period (NOAA 3469 and NOAA 3470). NOAA AR 3465 decayed, while NOAA AR3468 was stable. Previously number region NOAA AR 3467, re-emerged and produced most of the flaring activity including a C2.8 flare, peaking at 00:30. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Solární bouře

The solar wind parameters indicated a weak transient magnetic field structure, likely one of the predicted glancing CME arrivals that were predicted. The interplanetary magnetic field was stable around 10nT for most of the period. Bz was predominantly negative and had an extended period near -9 nT from 03:00 UTC on October 21. The solar wind speed decreased gradually from 370 to near 300 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the positive sector (field directed away from Sun). The interplanetary magnetic field is expected to remain slightly enhanced on October 21 and 22, due to ongoing possible CME influences. Additionally, the influence of weak high speed stream from the small negative polarity coronal holes, which crossed the central meridian on October 16 and 19, could increase the solar speed wind slightly.

Geomagnetismus

During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions reached minor storm conditions globally and active conditions locally (NOAA KP 1-5 and K Bel 2-4). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at unsettled to active levels on October 21 to 23, with further minor storm intervals are also possible, due to the low probability of further CME glancing blows.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24 hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected to be at nominal levels for the next days.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 072, na základě 08 stanic.

Solární indexy za 20 Oct 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	126
AK Chambon La Forêt	028
AK Wingst	010
Odhadovaný Ap	010
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	066 - Na základě 10 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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