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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Nov 20 1247 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
20 Nov 2023	140	010
21 Nov 2023	145	015
22 Nov 2023	150	006

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

There are three active regions visible on the disk situated on the eastern hemisphere. NOAA 3490 is the most magnetically complex and has produced the strongest flare over the last 24 hours, an M1.2 flare peaking at 20 November 09:03UT. More M-class flares can be expected in the next 24 hours.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Koronální díra

The low latitudinal extension of a high latitude coronal hole (in the northern hemisphere, negative polarity) is in a geo-effective position today. An equatorial positive polarity coronal hole will be in geoeffective position over the next 24 hours while the southern negative polarity coronal hole will cross central meridian over the next 24 hours. Finally, a mid latitude coronal hole postive coronal hole will cross central meridian on 22-23 November.

Solární bouře

A disturbance in the solar wind parameters starting on 20 November 0200:09UT could be associated with the not highly anticipated high speed stream associated with the negative polarity northern coronal hole. The high speed solar wind from positive polarity coronal hole is expected to arrive to Earth in 24 hours.

Geomagnetismus

During the last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA KP 2, K_Bel 3). Mostly unsettled conditions, while a chance of active conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, active conditions can be expected due to the arrival of a high speed streams.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below threshold and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold, as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was at normal levels, it is expected to stay at those levels for the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 100, na základě 08 stanic.

Solární indexy za 19 Nov 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	140
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	004
Odhadovaný Ap	003
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	065 - Na základě 15 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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