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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Dec 04 1232 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
04 Dec 2023	141	010
05 Dec 2023	138	019
06 Dec 2023	135	018

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was low but frequently during the past 24 hours. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3511 (magnetic configuration Beta, Catania sunspot group 79) produced the brightest flare, a C8 today at 01:26 UTC and has undergone through a very significant flux emergence during the last 24 hours. C-class flares are expected in the next 24 hours and if NOAA AR 3511 continues to increase, M-class flare(s) are likely to register.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) can be seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images starting from today 07:00 UTC. This is most likely a front-sided event and there is a good chance to become geo- effective. If so, it is expected to arrive at the first half of 7 Dec. A partial halo CME, also seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images, appeared yesterday at 10:36 UTC. This is estimated to be back-sided event and as such not geo- effective.

Solární bouře

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions are affected by the arrival of the expected High Speed Stream (HSS) during the last 24 hours. The SW speed reached 580 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) increased from below 5 nT to 12 nT. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) ranged between -9 and 9 nT as a result of the HSS arrival. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was almost exclusively directed towards the Sun during the past 24 hours. The SW conditions are expected to remained strongly affected by the said HSS during the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled both globally and locally (NOAA Kp 3+ to 2 and K BEL 3 to 1) during the last 24 hours. They are expected to remain unsettled in the next 24 hours, possibly reaching active levels.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the 1000 pfu alert threshold during the last 24 hours and is expected to to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 112, na základě 06 stanic.

Solární indexy za 03 Dec 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	139
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	012
Odhadovaný Ap	011
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	109 - Na základě 15 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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