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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Dec 18 1255 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
18 Dec 2023	158	076
19 Dec 2023	159	060
20 Dec 2023	159	019

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

The solar flaring activity was at moderate level during the last 24 hours, with several C-class flares and a M-class flare. The strongest flare was GOES M1.1 flare from NOAA AR 3520 which peaked at 20:17 UTC on Dec 17. During the flare, the source region (AR 3520) of the flare had beta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with few C-class flares, possibly M-class flares and a low chance for isolated X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24 hour.

Koronální díra

A negative polarity coronal hole in the southern hemisphere is starting to cross the central meridian today.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters were disturbed under the influence of several ICMEs. The solar wind speed ranged between 430 km/s to 560 km/s. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -14 and 12 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranging from 4 nT to 17 nT. The solar wind speed may increase if the high speed stream from the positive polarity coronal hole that crossed the central meridian on Dec 17 hits the Earth in the coming 24 hours.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions have reached moderate storm levels globally (Kp 6) and active condition levels locally (K_Bel 4) starting at 06 UT on Dec 18, due to the continuous impact of the several ICMEs that departed the Sun from Dec 14 and early Dec 15. We expect active to moderate geomagnetic storm conditions in the next 24 hours possibly due the arrival of high speed streams from the positive polarity coronal hole which crossed the central meridian on Dec 17.

Úrovně protonového toku

The 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to stay below the threshold level for the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence continues to be at normal to moderate level. It is expected that this parameter will remain below the threshold level in the coming 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 136, na základě 08 stanic.

Solární indexy za 17 Dec 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	155
AK Chambon La Forêt	038
AK Wingst	028
Odhadovaný Ap	035
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	111 - Na základě 22 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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