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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Dec 20 1244 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
20 Dec 2023	181	015
21 Dec 2023	182	010
22 Dec 2023	183	015

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

The solar flaring activity was at low levels with several C-class flares during the last 24 hours. The largest reported flare was GOES C8.3 flare, which peaked at 08:54 UT on Dec 20, from NOAA AR 3521. During the flare, the source region (AR 3521) of the flare had beta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with few C-class flares, possibly M-class flares and a low chance for isolated X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24 hour.

Koronální díra

A negative polarity coronal hole has crossed the central meridian and a high-speed stream from this coronal hole may arrive to Earth from December 22.

Solární bouře

Earth continues to be under the influence of the fast solar wind. The solar wind speed decreased from 665 km/s to 475 km/s. The North- South component (Bz) ranged between -7 and 6 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranging from 1 nT to 8 nT. In the next 24 hours, we expect a gradual transition from fast to slow solar wind.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to active conditions (NOAA Kp and K BEL 1 to 4), due to the continued impact of high speed streams from the positive polarity coronal hole which crossed the central meridian on Dec 17. The geomagnetic condition is expected to be quiet to active conditions probably in the next 24 hours.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected that this parameter to remain below the threshold level in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence continues to be at normal level and is expected to remain so.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 153, na základě 06 stanic.

Solární indexy za 19 Dec 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	231
10cm sluneční tok	179
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	012
Odhadovaný Ap	011
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	174 - Na základě 14 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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