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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Feb 05 1232 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
05 Feb 2024	176	008
06 Feb 2024	178	007
07 Feb 2024	176	004

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity remained at moderate levels in the past 24 hours with background high C-class flaring and multiple M-class flares. There are eight numbered active regions on the visible solar disc and a small new one has rotated from behind the east limb. The strongest activity was an M2.7 flare with peak time 22:37 UTC on Feb 4th produced by NOAA AR 3576 (beta-gamma-delta). This is by far the largest and the most active region, responsible for most of the moderate flaring activity. Isolated M-class flaring was produced by NOAA AR 3575 (beta-gamma-delta), which is the second largest region on the visible disc. NOAA AR 3571 (beta) has shown some increase in magnetic complexity and NOAA AR 3565 (beta-gamma) has shown a tiny increase in number of sunspots. The remaining active regions are relatively simple and have shown little to no signs of development. The solar flaring activity is expected to remain at moderate levels over the next days with likely M-class flaring.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) have registered mildly enhanced conditions, indicative of a connection to a high speed stream emanating from a positive polarity coronal hole. The solar wind velocity was in the range of 342 km/s to 437 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was slightly elevated, reaching a maximum 9.8 nT with a minimum Bz of -7 nT. The B field was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain at mildly elevated levels throughout Feb 6th with an ongoing mild high speed stream and a possible late glancing blow arrival. Return to nominal solar wind conditions is expected for Feb 7th.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet over Belgium and globally reached unsettled levels between 21 UTC and midnight on Feb 4th. Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected throughout Feb 5th and Feb 6th with small chance for isolated active levels later today in case of a combined effect from an expected glancing blow ICME arrival and the ongoing mild high speed stream.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to continue so over the next days, pending any fast eruptive activity related to NOAA AR 3576.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days.The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 161, na základě 08 stanic.

Solární indexy za 04 Feb 2024

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	170
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	008
Odhadovaný Ap	006
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	134 - Na základě 13 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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