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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Mar 14 1232 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
14 Mar 2024	128	016
15 Mar 2024	124	013
16 Mar 2024	120	007

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

There are seven active regions visible on the solar disk. NOAA AR 3599 remains the most active in terms of flaring, it produced several C-class and one M1.0 flare peaking at 06:04 UT. This region is rotating out of view over the west limb, but can still produce significant flares. The remaining visible regions have simple magnetic field configuration (alpha or beta). More C-class flares are expected, M-class flares are possible.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A partial halo CME with angular width around 150 degrees was first seen by LASCO C2 at 08:57 on 13 March. There are no signatures of an eruption on the visible solar disk, so this CME is deemed backsided and will not affect the Earth. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations in the last 24 hours.

Koronální díra

An equatorial (positive polarity) coronal hole crossed the central meridian on March 10. The high speed solar wind from this coronal hole may arrive at Earth today, although the bulk of the high speed stream may have passed south of the Earth.

Solární bouře

The Earth is inside slow solar wind, with speeds close to 450 km/s and an interplanetary magnetic field around 7 nT. The arrival of a high speed stream may create disturbed conditions today. There are low chances of seeing a glancing blow from the 10 March CME.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled both global and locally (NOAA_Kp up to 3 and K_BEL up to 3). A glancing blow from the 10 March CME (with low probability) and a high speed stream could arrive today and cause up to minor storm levels.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux from GOES 16 was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal level and is expected to remain so.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 073, na základě 17 stanic.

Solární indexy za 13 Mar 2024

Wolfovo číslo Catania	093
10cm sluneční tok	128
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	009
Odhadovaný Ap	010
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	080 - Na základě 19 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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