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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Mar 20 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
20 Mar 2024	167	008
21 Mar 2024	162	008
22 Mar 2024	158	006

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was high with an M7 flare detected today at 07:36 UTC. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3615 (magnetic type Beta-Gamma, Catania sunspot group 22) produced both the M-class flares detected during the past 24 hours, including an M2 yesterday at 23:27 UTC. NOAA AR 3616 (magnetic type Beta, Catania sunspot group 19) produced a C5 flare in the past 24 hours, but has declined since. Moderate to high flaring activity is expected to be produced by NOAA AR 3615 in the next 24 hours, with a change of an X-class flare.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours. A CME launched yesterday at 02:48 UTC can been seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images. It is estimated to be a back-sided event and hence not geo- effective.

Solární bouře

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions were typical of the slow SW regime during the last 24 hours. The SW speed varied between 330 and 420 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) ranged between 1 and 6 nT. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) fluctuated between -5 and 5 nT, while the interplanetary magnetic field phi angle varied between being directed away and towards the Sun in the past 24 hours. The SW conditions are likely to be affected by the arrival of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally quiet (NOAA Kp 1- to 2- and K BEL 1 to 2) during the last 24 hours. In the next 24 hours, they are likely to increase to unsettled or possibly to active levels as a CME is expected to arrive.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is likely to remain so for the next 24 hours. Nevertheless, there is also a chance of a proton event in the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was at nominal levels during the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 128, na základě 13 stanic.

Solární indexy za 19 Mar 2024

Wolfovo číslo Catania	168
10cm sluneční tok	169
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	008
Odhadovaný Ap	010
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	134 - Na základě 19 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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