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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Mar 26 1233 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
26 Mar 2024	186	017
27 Mar 2024	182	019
28 Mar 2024	177	008

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

The solar flaring activity was at moderate levels. The largest flare of the period was an M1.9 flare with peak time 00:36 UTC March 26. This flare originated from Catania region 22 (NOAA AR 3615), which is the largest and most complex region on disk (Beta- Gamma-Delta). This region also produced two further M-class flares (M1 and M1.3 peaking at 10:17 UTC and 10:43 UTC, respectively). Catania region 21 (NOAA AR 3614) produced a C7.9 flare with peak time 15:27 UTC March 25. Catania region (NOAA AR 3619) also produced C-class flaring. The remaining regions on disk were mostly quiet. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares expected, M-class flares likely and a low probability for an X-class flare.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Solární bouře

The solar wind speed remained enhanced overall due to the ongoing ICME influence, but gradually decreased from values around 800 km/s to around 600 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 0 and 8 nT. The Bz component reached a minimum value of -4 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle switched into the positive sector from 15:23 UTC March 25. The Earth is expected to continue under the waning influence of this ICME over the next 24 hours with the enhanced solar wind speed expected to persist on March 26 and 27, as it continues to gradually decrease.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions reached active conditions (NOAA Kp 4 and Local K Bel 4) between 12:00 and 15:00 UTC March 25. Conditions then reduced to quiet to unsettled levels. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at unsettled to active conditions on March 26 and 27, with further minor storm conditions possible in response to any prolonged period of negative Bz while the Earth is still under the influence of the high solar wind speed of the ICME.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was above the 10pfu threshold at the start of the period (with a value of around 24 MeV as measured by GOES-16) and then gradually decreased to below the threshold from 15:25 UTC March 25. The proton flux is expected to remain slightly elevated but be below 10 Mev threshold over the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next day. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected to be at nominal levels for the next day.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 143, na základě 09 stanic.

Solární indexy za 25 Mar 2024

Wolfovo číslo Catania	194
10cm sluneční tok	190
AK Chambon La Forêt	021
AK Wingst	022
Odhadovaný Ap	021
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	166 - Na základě 18 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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