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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Mar 28 1234 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
28 Mar 2024	170	006
29 Mar 2024	166	005
30 Mar 2024	155	008

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

The solar flaring activity was moderate with one M-class flare recorded. The largest flare of the period was an M7.1 flare with peak time 06:29 UTC March 28. This flare originated from Catania region 22 (NOAA AR 3615), which is the largest and most complex region on disk (Beta-Gamma-Delta) but has begun to decay slightly. This region also produced much of the C-class flaring activity. Catania region 30 and 32 (NOAA ARs 3623 and 3622) decayed into plage regions The remaining regions on disk are simple and were either stable or in decay. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares expected, M-class flares likely and a low probability for an X-class flare.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Koronální díra

Two small positive polarity coronal holes one near the equator and one in the southern hemisphere began to cross the central meridian on March 27.

Solární bouře

The solar wind speed gradually decreased from values around 500 km/s to around 420 km/s due to the waning influence of the ICME which arrived on March 24. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 0 and 5 nT. The Bz component reached a minimum value of -2 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector. The solar wind speed is expected to reflect slow solar wind conditions on March 28 and 29, enhancements due to the solar wind associated with the positive coronal holes may be expected from March 30.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels (NOAA Kp 2 and Local K Bel 2). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on March 28 to March 30.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was still slightly enhanced but remained below the 10pfu threshold. The proton flux is expected to continue to decrease and remain below 10 Mev threshold over the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to exceed this threshold over the next days. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected to increase to normal to moderate levels over the next day.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 097, na základě 14 stanic.

Solární indexy za 27 Mar 2024

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	175
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	006
Odhadovaný Ap	006
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	115 - Na základě 19 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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