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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Mar 30 1238 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
30 Mar 2024	160	005
31 Mar 2024	148	011
01 Apr 2024	143	010

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

The solar flaring activity was at moderate levels. The largest flare of the period was M1.2 flare with peak time 19:34 UTC March 29. This flare originated from Catania region 22 (NOAA AR 3615), which is the largest and most complex region on disk (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma-Delta) but is now rotating over the west limb. The remaining two regions Catania regions 24 and 28 (NOAA AR 3617 and 3619) are also approaching the west limb and are simple and quiet. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, while Catania region 22 remains on the disk, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares likely and a low probability for an X-class flare.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Solární bouře

The solar wind conditions reflected a slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed gradually decreased from values around 360 km/s to around 320 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 0 and 7 nT. The Bz component reached a minimum value of -2 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi was in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind speed is expected to continue to reflect slow solar wind conditions on March 30. Possible enhancements in the solar wind speed, due to a weak high-speed stream associated with the positive polarity coronal holes, may be expected from March 31.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels (NOAA Kp 2 and Local K Bel 2). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet levels on March 30 and 31.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the 10pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold for the next 24 hours, with a slight chance that the proton flux may increase in response to any strong flares from Catania region 22 (NOAA AR 3615).

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux increased slightly but remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected to be at nominal levels over the next day.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 048, na základě 07 stanic.

Solární indexy za 29 Mar 2024

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	167
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	006
Odhadovaný Ap	004
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	082 - Na základě 24 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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