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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Apr 12 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
12 Apr 2024	150	016
13 Apr 2024	155	010
14 Apr 2024	160	012

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been moderate, with multiple C-class flares and one M-class flare. The strongest flare was an M5.4 from beyond the east solar limb peaking at 17:06 UTC. There are currently five active regions on the solar disk. NOAA AR 3634 has grown, developed to beta-gamma and is currently the most complex active region. NOAA AR 3636 (alpha) has rotated on disc from the south-east limb. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low or moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares probable and a small chance of M-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A faint Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) from the south- east limb was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 around 06:30 UTC on April 11th. It is probably associated with the filament eruption near the central meridian reported on April 11th. A possible glancing blow may be expected late on April 14th. A CME from the north-east limb was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 at 17:36 UTC on April 11th. It is estimated to be a back-sided event, likely associated with the M5.4 flare and hence not geo-effective. A filament eruption was observed on SDO/AIA 304 data around 01:10 UTC near the central meridian. It will be analysed when coronagraph observations become available. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations in the last 24 hours.

Koronální díra

The small, positive polarity, mid-latitude (northern hemisphere) coronal hole that was reported on April 10th continues to reside on the central meridian. A related high-speed stream is expected to arrive on April 13th.

Solární bouře

The Earth is inside the slow solar wind, with speed values ranging from 389 km/s to 509 km/s and an interplanetary magnetic field around 5 nT. The Bz component varied between -4.3 nT and 5.4 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector. Possible enhancements in the solar wind speed, due to high-speed streams associated with the two coronal holes that crossed the central meridian between April 9th and 11th, may be expected over the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were globally at quiet to unsettled levels (NOAA Kp from 0 to 3). Geomagnetic conditions were locally at quiet levels (K BEL from 0 to 2). Quiet to active conditions are expected over the next 24 hours due to the influence from the negative polarity coronal hole.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 081, na základě 20 stanic.

Solární indexy za 11 Apr 2024

Wolfovo číslo Catania	096
10cm sluneční tok	144
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	006
Odhadovaný Ap	006
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	089 - Na základě 20 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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