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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 May 27 1236 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
27 May 2024	157	016
28 May 2024	160	008
29 May 2024	167	007

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

There are seven visible ARs on the solar disk. Solar activity has been high over the last 24 hours. The largest flare of the period was an X2.8 flare, with peak time 07:08 UTC on May 27. This flare originated beyond the south-east limb and is likely associated to a returning active region from the last rotation (NOAA AR 3664). Associated Type II and Type IV radio emissions were observed starting at 06:59 UTC and 07:05 UTC, respectively. Currently, NOAA AR 3691 is the most complex region on disk (beta-gamma-delta magnetic field configuration) and produced C-class flaring. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours with C-class flares expected, M-class flares likely and a low probability for further X-class flares, particularly from the expected returning active region that is about to rotate onto the disk.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery. The CME related to the X2.8 flare will be analysed when data becomes available, however, due to the location of the flaring region any CME is not likely to have a strong Earth directed component.

Solární bouře

The solar wind conditions reflected a slow solar wind regime with speeds around 360 km/s and an interplanetary magnetic field around 7 nT. The Bz component reached a minimum value of -5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun. Slow solar wind conditions are expected to continue generally on May 27 and 28. Minor enhancements in the solar wind speed and magnetic field may be possible from late on May 27, due to a glancing blow associated with the CME of May 23 but this is low confidence.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 3 and Local K Bel 3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly at quiet to unsettled levels on May 27 to May 28, with a chance for active conditions in response to the possible glancing blow from the CME of May 23.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the 10pfu threshold. There is a slight chance that the proton flux may increase in response to further strong flares.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux increased slightly but remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected remain at nominal levels over the next day.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 132, na základě 17 stanic.

Solární indexy za 26 May 2024

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	156
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	014
Odhadovaný Ap	012
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	121 - Na základě 24 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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