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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 May 30 1235 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
30 May 2024	180	007
31 May 2024	188	007
01 Jun 2024	198	017

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar activity was high over the last 24 hours. The largest flare of the period was a long duration X1.4 flare with peak time 14:37 UTC May 29 from Catania sunspot group 28 (NOAA AR 3697). Type II and Type IV radio emission were detected associated with this event. This region also produced an M2.5 flare with peak time 12:55 UTC May 29. Catania sunspot group 27 (NOAA AR 3695) with peak time 11:21 UTC. Further M-class flares, including an M5.7 and an M2.7 flare, with peak times 18:41 UTC and 18:28 UTC on May 29, respectively, were recorded from Catania sunspot group 22 (NOAA AR 3691). The rest of the regions were either stable or in decay. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours with C-class flares expected, M-class flares likely and a chance for further X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed in the LASCO/C2 chronograph imagery at 14:48 UTC May 29. The CME is mostly directed to the east and an has estimated projected velocity around 600 km/s and is related to the X1.4 flare with peak time 14:37 UTC, from NOAA AR 3397. While the bulk of the ejecta is expected to miss Earth, a glancing blow could possibly arrive at Earth on June 1.

Koronální díra

A small positive polarity coronal hole in the northern hemisphere transited the central meridian on May 29. Minor increase in the solar wind conditions, but no significant high speed stream, associated with this coronal hole may be expected from June 02.

Solární bouře

The solar wind conditions reflected a slow solar wind regime with speeds between 320 and 380 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was slightly elevated between 7 and 10 nT. The Bz component reached a minimum value of -6 nT. Generally slow solar wind conditions are expected to continue on May 30 and May 31. A glancing blow from the partial halo CME on May 29 may cause enhanced solar wind speed and magnetic field from June 01.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 2 and Local K Bel 3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly at quiet to unsettled levels on May 30 and 31. Active to minor storm conditions may be possible from June 01, due to the anticipated glancing blow from the May 29 CME.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the 10pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. There is a slight chance that the proton flux may increase due to strong flaring from NOAA ARs 3697 or 3691, but this is unlikely due to their current position.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected remain at nominal levels over the next day.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 152, na základě 11 stanic.

Solární indexy za 29 May 2024

Wolfovo číslo Catania	174
10cm sluneční tok	171
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	007
Odhadovaný Ap	007
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	156 - Na základě 21 stanic

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