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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Jun 01 1240 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
01 Jun 2024	186	016
02 Jun 2024	195	011
03 Jun 2024	205	007

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar activity was high over the last 24 hours. The largest flare of the period was an X1.4 flare with peak time 08:48 UTC June 01 from NOAA AR 3697, the most complex region on the disk. This region also produced a X1.1 flare with peak time 22:03 UTC May 31. Two new active regions emerged, newly numbered NOAA AR 3699 and an as yet unnumbered region at S05W30, but both were quiet. NOAA AR 3691 continued to decay and produced C-class flaring activity. NOAA AR3698 also produced C-class flaring activity and grew slightly. The rest of the regions were quiet. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours with C-class flares expected, M-class flares likely and a chance for further X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Solární bouře

The solar wind reflected slow solar wind conditions with speeds between 330 and 380 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was stable around 5nT, with a minimum Bz value of -5nT. A mildly enhanced solar wind speed and magnetic field may be possible in the next 24 hours, due to a glancing blow from the partial halo CME on May 29 and the weak influence from the small positive polarity coronal hole which crossed the central meridian on May 29.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 2 and Local K Bel 3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly at quiet to unsettled levels in the next 24 hours, however isolated active to minor storm conditions may be possible on June 01, due to the predicted glancing blow from the May 29 CME.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the 10pfu threshold and is expected to remain so for the next day. There is a slight chance that the proton flux may increase due to strong flaring from NOAA AR 3697, but this is unlikely due to its current position.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected remain at nominal levels over the next days.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 197, na základě 04 stanic.

Solární indexy za 31 May 2024

Wolfovo číslo Catania	158
10cm sluneční tok	179
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	012
Odhadovaný Ap	012
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	155 - Na základě 24 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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