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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Jun 04 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
04 Jun 2024	190	024
05 Jun 2024	195	007
06 Jun 2024	195	007

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a M4.8-flare, with peak time 14:11 UTC on June 03 associated with NOAA AR 3695 (beta). There are currently 11 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3697 is the most complex AR (beta-gamma-delta) and is responsible for the majority of the flaring activity of the last 24h, including the M2.4-flare with peak time 6:31 UTC June 04. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the coming day with C-class flares expected and M-class flares likely and a chance of X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No new Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images.

Solární bouře

The solar wind at the Earth was initially slow, with speeds of 300 km/s and interplanetary magnetic field around 5 nT and Bz reaching minimum value of -5nT. Around 21:00 UTC June 03 the magnetic field went up to 18nT and later on the minimum Bz was -10 nT. The solar wind speed increased slowly from this time on to 400 km/s. A minor increase of the solar wind speed and magnetic field is expected later on June 04, due to the potential arrival of the CME of June 01.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions reached minor storm level (NOAA Kp 5, Local K Bel 4) June 03 between 21:00- 24:00 UTC. Geomagnetic conditions may reach active to minor storm conditions in the next 24h due to the possible arrival from the CME of June 01.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux remained below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next day. There is a slight chance that the proton flux may increase due to strong flaring from NOAA AR 3697.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 222, na základě 15 stanic.

Solární indexy za 03 Jun 2024

Wolfovo číslo Catania	258
10cm sluneční tok	186
AK Chambon La Forêt	021
AK Wingst	013
Odhadovaný Ap	012
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	215 - Na základě 21 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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