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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Jun 09 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10cm tok	Ap
09 Jun 2024	188	007
10 Jun 2024	188	027
11 Jun 2024	186	007

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a M1.6-flare, with peak time 07:01 UTC on June 09, from NOAA AR 3697 (beta-gamma-delta). There are currently 9 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3697 is the most complex AR (beta-gamma-delta) and was together with NOAA AR 3709 (beta) responsible for the majority of the flaring activity in the past 24h. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the coming day with C-class flares expected and M-class flares likely and a chance of X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No new Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images.

Koronální díra

A east-west elongated negative polarity coronal hole in the southern hemisphere started to cross the central meridian on June 08. No strong high-speed stream is expected at Earth from this coronal hole.

Solární bouře

The solar wind at the Earth decreased from 530km/s to around 410 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was around 6nT and Bz reaching minimum value of -5nT. An increase of the solar wind speed and magnetic field is expected midday of June 10, due to a glancing blow from the halo CME of June 08.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to active (NOAA Kp 3, Local K Bel 4) over the past 24h. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain first quiet to unsettled then reach active to moderate storm levels, with the potential ICME arrival from midday June 10.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by GOES-18, was above the 10 pfu threshold over the past 24h. and is gradually decreasing. The proton flux is expected to remain elevated for the start of June 09 and is expected to go below the 10 pfu threshold in the second half of June 09. Any further flaring activity with associated proton events from NOAA AR 3697 could cause further increases.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 145, na základě 16 stanic.

Solární indexy za 08 Jun 2024

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	190
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	017
Odhadovaný Ap	017
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	173 - Na základě 18 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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