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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Jun 11 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
11 Jun 2024	175	008
12 Jun 2024	172	007
13 Jun 2024	169	007

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at moderate levels. The strongest flares were two M-class flares associated with NOAA AR 3697 (previously beta-gamma-delta). The first was an M1.3 flare peaking at 13:29 UTC on June 10 and the second an M9.5 flare peaking at 18:40 UTC on June 10. There are currently eight active regions on the solar disk, with NOAA AR 3709 (beta-gamma) being the most complex one. NOAA AR 3697 has now rotated behind the west limb and continued to produce moderate levels of flaring activity. NOAA AR 3701 has rotated behind the west limb. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a small chance of X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

Three partial halo coronal mass ejections (CME) have been observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 chronograph imagery over the last 24 hours. The first one was a partial halo CME detected starting at 11:00 UTC on June 10 in LASCO-C2 data. It is most likely related to two M-class flares from NOAA AR 3697 starting from 10:18 UTC, preceding the X1.5 flare with peak time 11:08 UTC. The CME source region is believed to be behind the west limb and no impact on Earth is expected. The second one was a partial halo CME detected starting at 18:36 UTC on June 10 in LASCO-C2 data. It is most likely associated with the M9.5 flare from NOAA AR 3697 with peak time 18:40 UTC on June 10. The CME source region is believed to be behind the west limb and no impact on Earth is expected. The third partial halo CME was first detected at 23:36 UTC on June 10 in LASCO-C2 data. The CME is directed primarily to the south-west and has an estimated velocity of about 1000 km/s. It is possibly associated with a prominence eruption in the south-west quadrant around 23:15 UTC on June 10. Due to the source location only a minor glancing blow at Earth can be possible. Further analysis to determine potential impact on Earth is ongoing.

Koronální díra

The east-west elongated, negative polarity coronal hole in the southern hemisphere has fully crossed the central meridian. No high- speed stream arriving at Earth is expected from this coronal hole.

Solární bouře

In the last 24 hours, the Earth came under the influence of an Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) arrival associated with a CME that lifted off the Sun on June 08. A shock was detected in the solar wind data around 16:50 UTC on June 10. The interplanetary magnetic field jumped from 6 nT to 15 nT, the solar wind speed jumped from 345 km/s to 440 km/s and later increased up to 537 km/s. The solar wind density at the shock increased from 4 ppcc to 15 ppcc. Solar wind conditions are currently returning to the slow solar wind regime and are expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions reached globally and locally active levels (NOAA Kp and K BEL reaching 4+) as a result of a weak ICME arrival. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 102, na základě 17 stanic.

Solární indexy za 10 Jun 2024

Wolfovo číslo Catania	140
10cm sluneční tok	178
AK Chambon La Forêt	023
AK Wingst	011
Odhadovaný Ap	010
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	121 - Na základě 20 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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